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‘High likelihood of human civilisation coming to end’ by 2050, report finds… well let’s have look at you could’ve won! :D

“Of course Israel is preparing for this!… this is fucking Biblical!”

Those in the UK who remember the television gameshow Bullseye!… And the famous Jim Bowen catchphrase “Let’s take a look at what you could’ve won!” 😀

Well humankind… LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT YOU COULD’VE HAVE WON! It’s a peaceful, space faring civilisation of global abundance, free from war, poverty and crime! A global paradise for all!

But unfortunately you go home with a mass extinction event consisting of war, famine and unimaginable human suffering! 😀 Sorry… it was lovely to have you on the show though!
Round of applause for humankind everyone! 😀

Human Civilization Will Crumble by 2050 If We Don’t Stop Climate Change Now, New Paper Claims

By Brandon Specktor, Senior Writer June 4, 2019 11:13am

Human Civilization Will Crumble by 2050 If We Don't Stop Climate Change Now, New Paper Claims
The Chernobyl exclusion zone shows a glimpse of a world inhospitable to life. According to a new climate policy paper, much of Earth could look the same by 2050 if humans don’t act fast to mitigate global warming. Credit: Shutterstock

It seems every week there’s a scary new report about how man-made climate change is going to cause the collapse of the world’s ice sheets, result in the extinction of up to 1 million animal species and — if that wasn’t bad enough — make our beer very, very expensive. This week, a new policy paper from an Australian think tank claims that those other reports are slightly off; the risks of climate change are actually much, much worse than anyone can imagine.

According to the paper, climate change poses a “near- to mid-term existential threat to human civilization,” and there’s a good chance society could collapse as soon as 2050 if serious mitigation actions aren’t taken in the next decade.

Published by the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration in Melbourne (an independent think tank focused on climate policy) and authored by a climate researcher and a former fossil fuel executive, the paper’s central thesis is that climate scientists are too restrained in their predictions of how climate change will affect the planet in the near future. [Top 9 Ways the World Could End]Advertisement

The current climate crisis, they say, is larger and more complex than any humans have ever dealt with before. General climate models — like the one that the United Nations’ Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) used in 2018 to predict that a global temperature increase of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) could put hundreds of millions of people at risk — fail to account for the sheer complexity of Earth’s many interlinked geological processes; as such, they fail to adequately predict the scale of the potential consequences. The truth, the authors wrote, is probably far worse than any models can fathom.

How the world ends

What might an accurate worst-case picture of the planet’s climate-addled future actually look like, then? The authors provide one particularly grim scenario that begins with world governments “politely ignoring” the advice of scientists and the will of the public to decarbonize the economy (finding alternative energy sources), resulting in a global temperature increase 5.4 F (3 C) by the year 2050. At this point, the world’s ice sheets vanish; brutal droughts kill many of the trees in the Amazon rainforest (removing one of the world’s largest carbon offsets); and the planet plunges into a feedback loop of ever-hotter, ever-deadlier conditions.

“Thirty-five percent of the global land area, and 55 percent of the global population, are subject to more than 20 days a year of lethal heat conditions, beyond the threshold of human survivability,” the authors hypothesized.

Meanwhile, droughts, floods and wildfires regularly ravage the land. Nearly one-third of the world’s land surface turns to desert. Entire ecosystems collapse, beginning with the planet’s coral reefs, the rainforest and the Arctic ice sheets. The world’s tropics are hit hardest by these new climate extremes, destroying the region’s agriculture and turning more than 1 billion people into refugees.

This mass movement of refugees — coupled with shrinking coastlines and severe drops in food and water availability — begin to stress the fabric of the world’s largest nations, including the United States. Armed conflicts over resources, perhaps culminating in nuclear war, are likely.

The result, according to the new paper, is “outright chaos” and perhaps “the end of human global civilization as we know it.”

How can this catastrophic vision of the future be prevented? Only with the people of the world accepting climate change for the emergency it is and getting to work — immediately. According to the paper’s authors, the human race has about one decade left to mount a global movement to transition the world economy to a zero-carbon-emissions system. (Achieving zero-carbon emissions requires either not emitting carbon or balancing carbon emissions with carbon removal.) The effort required to do so “would be akin in scale to the World War II emergency mobilization,” the authors wrote.

The new policy paper was endorsed with a foreword by Adm. Chris Barrie, a retired Australian defense chief and senior royal navy commander who has testified before the Australian Senate about the devastating possibilities climate change poses to national security and overall human well-being.

“I told the [Senate] Inquiry that, after nuclear war, human-induced global warming is the greatest threat to human life on the planet,” Barrie wrote in the new paper. “Human life on Earth may be on the way to extinction, in the most horrible way.”

New Report Warns “High Likelihood Of Human Civilization Coming To An End” Within 30 Years

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New Report Warns 'High Likelihood Of Human Civilization Coming To An End' Within 30 Years
By James Felton

04 Jun 2019, 15:17

A new report has warned there’s an existential risk to humanity from the climate crisis within the coming decades, and a “high likelihood of human civilization coming to an end” over the next three decades unless urgent action is taken.

The report, published by Australian thinktank the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration, outlines an apocalyptic scenario that could see conditions “beyond the threshold of human survivability” across much of our planet by 2050. Their analysis calculates the existential climate-related security risk to Earth through a scenario set 30 years into the future.

The report refuses to downplay its bleak assessment of what could happen, warning of “an existential risk to civilization [..] posing permanent large negative consequences to humanity that may never be undone, either annihilating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtailing its potential.”

The authors argue we are now in a unique situation with no precise historical equivalent, with temperatures unlike anything humanity has ever experienced, and a population of nearly 8 billion people. This requires us to work towards avoiding catastrophic possibilities rather than looking at probabilities, as learning from mistakes is not an option when it comes to existential risks. 

With that in mind, they propose a plausible and terrifying “2050 scenario” whereby humanity could face irreversible collapse in just three decades. So, here goes:

2020-2030

Governments fail to act on the evidence that the Paris Agreement isn’t enough to keep Earth’s temperature from rising, and will “lock in at least 3°C of warming”. As projected by previous studies, carbon dioxide levels have reached 437 parts per million, which hasn’t been seen in the last 20 million years. The planet warms by 1.6°C (2.8°F).

2030-2050

Emissions peak in 2030 and are reduced. However, carbon cycle feedbacks and the continued use of fossil fuels see temperatures rise by 3°C (5.4°F) by 2050.

2050

By 2050 there’s a scientific consensus that we reached the tipping point for ice sheets in Greenland and the West Antarctic well before 2°C (3.6°F) of warming, and for widespread permafrost at 2.5°C (4.5°F). A “Hothouse Earth” scenario plays out that sees Earth’s temperatures doomed to rise by a further 1°C (1.8°F) even if we stopped emissions immediately.

At this point the human impact is off the scale. Fifty-five percent of the global population are subject to more than 20 days a year of lethal heat conditions beyond that which humans can survive. North America suffers extreme weather events including wildfires, drought, and heatwaves. Monsoons in China fail, the great rivers of Asia virtually dry up, and rainfall in central America falls by half.

Deadly heat conditions across West Africa persist for over 100 days a year, and poorer countries are unable to provide enough artificially-cooled environments for their populations to be viable. Food production is severely affected, and inadequate to feed the global population. More than a billion people are displaced.

The knock-on consequences affect national security, as the scale of the challenges involved, such as pandemic disease outbreaks, are overwhelming. Armed conflicts over resources may become a reality, and have the potential to escalate into nuclear war.

In the worst case scenario, a scale of destruction the authors say is beyond their capacity to model, there is a “high likelihood of human civilization coming to an end”.

With these horrific possibilities in mind for our near future, the authors recommend nations “urgently examine the role that the national security sector can play in providing leadership and capacity for a near-term, society-wide, emergency mobilization of labor and resources, of a scale unprecedented in peacetime, to build a zero-emissions industrial system and draw down carbon to protect human civilization.”

It is doable. The most recent IPCC report lays out a future if we limit global heating to 1.5°C instead of the Paris Agreement’s 2°C. There are ways we can prevent this future, we just need to act now.  

‘High likelihood of human civilisation coming to end’ by 2050, report finds

Over-conservative climate scenarios mean we could face ‘world of outright chaos’, says analysis authored by former fossil fuel executive and backed by former head of Australia’s military

Human civilisation as we know it may have already entered its last decades, a worrying new report examining the likely future of our planet’s habitability warns.

The increasingly disastrous impacts of the climate crisis, coupled with inaction to tackle it are sending our planet down a bleak path towards an increasingly chaotic world which could overwhelm societies around the globe, the report’s authors contend.

The paper, produced by the Melbourne-based think tank the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration, is presented by the former chief of the Australian Defence Forces and retired Royal Australian Navy Admiral Chris Barrie.

In his introduction he says the report’s authors “have laid bare the unvarnished truth about the desperate situation humans, and our planet, are in, painting a disturbing picture of the real possibility that human life on earth may be on the way to extinction, in the most horrible way.”

The paper argues that “climate change now represents a near to mid-term existential threat to human civilisation,” and calls for a recalibration in how governments respond to estimated climate scenarios so they take worst case projections more seriously.

1/25Masked Butterflyfish (Chaetodon semilarvatus) swimming over a bommie reef in the Egyptian Red Sea marine reserve of Ras Mohamed, off the southern tip of the Sinai peninsulaAFP/Getty

It also argues that the detrimental impacts of climate breakdown, such as increasing scarcity of food and water, will act as a catalyst on extant socio-political instabilities to accelerate disorder and conflict over the next three decades.

To usefully prepare for such an impact, the report calls for an overhaul in countries’ risk management “which is fundamentally different from conventional practice”.

“It would focus on the high-end, unprecedented possibilities, instead of assessing middle-of-the-road probabilities on the basis of historic experience.”

The research was authored by David Spratt, Breakthrough’s research director, and Ian Dunlop, a former international oil, gas and coal industry executive, who worked for Royal Dutch Shell and was chair of the Australian Coal Association.

Their paper offers what they say is a plausible scenario providing “a glimpse into a world of outright chaos”.

Based on lack of meaningful global action to rapidly extinguish all greenhouse gas emissions within the next decade, the authors sketch out a scenario in which global emissions peak in 2030.

In this case, using several existing studies, they hypothesise average global temperatures may reach 3C above pre-industrial levels by 2050.

The effect of this would be to realise the “hothouse Earth” scenario in which the planet would be heading for at least another degree of warming.

The reflective sea ice would melt, warming oceans further and raising sea levels rapidly. There would be “widespread permafrost loss and large-scale Amazon drought and dieback”.

The scenario reads: “The destabilisation of the Jet Stream has very significantly affected the intensity and geographical distribution of the Asian and West African monsoons and, together with the further slowing of the Gulf Stream, is impinging on life support systems in Europe.

“North America suffers from devastating weather extremes including wildfires, heatwaves, drought and inundation. The summer monsoons in China have failed, and water flows into the great rivers of Asia are severely reduced by the loss of more than one-third of the Himalayan ice sheet.

“Glacial loss reaches 70 per cent in the Andes, and rainfall in Mexico and central America falls by half.”

This scenario would also put the world on track for 5C of warming by 2100.

The paper notes that scientists have already warned that warming of 4C is incompatible with an organised global community, would be devastating to the majority of ecosystems, and has a high probability of not being stable. The World Bank said the planet may be “beyond adaptation” to such conditions.

“Even for 2C of warming, more than a billion people may need to be relocated and in high-end scenarios, the scale of destruction is beyond our capacity to model, with a high likelihood of human civilisation coming to an end,” the paper says.

The authors say “the world is currently completely unprepared to envisage, and even less deal with, the consequences of catastrophic climate change,” but also put forward policy recommendations which could help to mitigate the worst effects.

“To reduce this risk and protect human civilisation, a massive global mobilisation of resources is needed in the coming decade to build a zero-emissions industrial system and set in train the restoration of a safe climate.

“This would be akin in scale to the World War II emergency mobilisation.”

Admiral Barrie added: “A doomsday future is not inevitable! But without immediate drastic action our prospects are poor. We must act collectively. We need strong, determined leadership in government, in business and in our communities to ensure a sustainable future for humankind.”

New Research: Human Civilization Will Likely Collapse By 2050

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